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Pay rises outstrip inflation by most for 2y

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Wages have risen faster than inflation by the most for two years, but there are signs the jobs market is starting to weaken.

Regular pay rose at an annual rate of 7.7% between July and September, faster than price rises over the same period.

However, official figures showed that wage rises are starting to slow in some industries.

And while the UK’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, the number of job vacancies has continued to fall.

Between August and October, the estimated number of vacancies in the UK fell by 58,000 to 957,000, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

That was the 16th month in row it had fallen, although the total number of vacancies remains well above pre-pandemic levels.

For nearly two years, prices of goods such as food and energy have been rising much faster than wages, putting pressure on household finances.

Inflation has now started to ease, although consumers are increasingly being squeezed by higher interest rates which have driven up the cost of mortgages and other loans.

The latest figures show that regular pay – which excludes bonuses – rose by 1% in the three months to September after taking inflation into account.

That was the largest increase since the three months to September 2021, the ONS said.

Average weekly earnings were estimated to be £621 for regular pay in September, and £673 for total pay (which includes bonuses).

Wages versus inflation graphic

While there may be relief for many as the gap between pay rises and inflation widens, it is largely due to slowing price rises rather than big jumps in pay.

Wage growth is actually dwindling in some areas – such as construction and manufacturing – as expectations of future price rises diminish and the jobs market starts to weaken.

Moreover, the average pay rise awarded in September was the smallest for six months, and in the private sector the typical rise was the least generous since January.

The Bank of England has warned that higher interest rates are likely to hit companies’ hiring plans next year, driving up unemployment to 5%.

This would result in more than 150,000 job losses and mean that wage growth is likely to slow further.

Jake Finney, an economist at PwC UK, said the latest indications were that the labour market is “gradually cooling, not collapsing”.

He said he expected the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting in December, as it waits to see the impact of higher interest rates on the labour market and the economy more generally.

Currently, financial markets are not expecting the Bank to push interest rates higher than the current level of 5.25%, and some analysts believe rates could be cut at some point next year.

Living wage rise

Against this backdrop the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, will reveal how much the National Living Wage will rise by next spring at next week’s Autumn Statement.

He has pledged it will be at least £11 per hour for the main rate, an increase of over 5%, or £1,000 per year for a full-time worker.

While this will be hugely welcome for the two million workers paid this wage, some employers are already fretting about the impact on costs as business feels the squeeze.

Pub and hotel owner Marc Bridgen
Image caption,

Pub and hotel owner Marc Bridgen has had to put prices up to cover rising costs

Marc Bridgen is the owner of The Dog at Wingham, a gastropub and boutique hotel in Kent. While he supports the forthcoming rise in the National Living Wage, he says he may need to increase his prices to pay for it.

“We’ve been absorbing [cost rises] for a long time, and we recently had to increase our prices. If we get to April and our cost base goes up by, say, 10% on the wages, it’s more than £1,000 a week, which is a lot of food and drink to sell.”

Responding to the latest labour market figures, the chancellor said: “It’s heartening to see inflation falling and real wages growing, keeping more money in people’s pockets.

“Building on the labour market reforms in spring, the Autumn Statement will set out my plans to get people back into work and deliver growth for the UK.”

Labour’s shadow work and pensions secretary, Liz Kendall, said the figures showed “the Tories’ failure on the economy”.

“Our employment rate still hasn’t got back to pre-pandemic levels, unlike every other G7 country, and a record number of people remain locked out of work due to long-term sickness.”

Cost of living: Tackling it together

Tips for getting a pay rise

  • Choose the right time – scheduling a talk in advance will allow you and your boss time to prepare, and means you’re more likely to have a productive conversation
  • Bring evidence – have a list of what you’ve achieved at work and how you’ve developed yourself
  • Be confident – know your worth and don’t be shy about speaking up
  • Have a figure in mind – look at job adverts online to see the salaries for comparable jobs
  • Don’t give up – keep talking to your employer if it doesn’t work this time and if you can’t get what you want be prepared to look elsewhere

— Reports /TrainViral

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Six tonnes of cocaine found in banana shipment

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Sniffer dogs in Ecuador have found 6.23 tonnes of cocaine hidden in a banana shipment, police say.

The dogs alerted their handlers, who seized 5,630 parcels filled with a white substance that later tested positive for cocaine.

The shipment was destined for Germany, officials said, and would have been worth $224m (£173m) had it reached its destination.

Five people had been arrested following the discovery, according to the prosecutor-general’s office.

Police said they had found the massive cocaine haul during a routine inspection of container stored at Posorja deepwater port south-west of Ecuador’s largest city, Guayaquil.

The cocaine parcels had been hidden beneath crates of bananas destined for export.

One of those arrested in connection to the drug discovery was a representative of the export company responsible for the shipment, whom prosecutors said had been present at the inspection and gave officials the names of the four other suspects.

They include the managers of the banana plantation where the cocaine is suspected to have been added to the fruit shipment, as well as the driver who took the container to the port.

Ecuador has become a major transit country for cocaine produced in neighbouring Peru and Colombia, with transnational criminal gangs using Ecuador’s ports to ship the drug to Europe and the US.

Last year, Ecuadorean security forces seized more than 200 tonnes of drugs, most of it cocaine. Only the US and Colombia seized more drugs in 2023.

Gangs have caused a wave of violent crime in Ecuador, leading President Daniel Noboa to declare a state of emergency and deploy tens of thousands of police officers and soldiers in an effort to combat them.

These security forces have stopped large amounts of cocaine from being shipped to Europe.

In January, officers found the largest stash ever to be seized in Ecuador – 22 tonnes of cocaine – buried in a pig farm.

However, extortion, kidnappings and murders remain high in the Andean country.

Reports /Trainviral/

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Thailand expands v-free entry to 93 countries

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Thailand has expanded its visa-free entry scheme to 93 countries and territories as it seeks to revitalize its tourism industry.

Visitors can stay in the South-East Asian nation for up to 60 days under the new scheme that took effect on Monday,

Previously, passport holders from 57 countries were allowed to enter without a visa.

Tourism is a key pillar of the Thai economy, but it has not fully recovered from the pandemic.

Thailand recorded 17.5 million foreign tourists arrivals in the first six months of 2024, up 35% from the same period last year, according to official data. However, the numbers pale in comparison to pre-pandemic levels.

Most of the visitors were from China, Malaysia and India.

Tourism revenue during the same period came in at 858 billion baht ($23.6bn; £18.3bn), less than a quarter of the government’s target.

Millions of tourists flock to Thailand every year for its golden temples, white sand beaches, picturesque mountains and vibrant night life.

The revised visa-free rules are part of a broader plan to boost tourism.

Also on Monday, Thailand introduced a new five-year visa for remote workers, that allows holders to stay for up to 180 days each year.

The country will also allow visiting students, who earn a bachelor’s degree or higher in Thailand, to stay for one year after graduation to find a job or travel.

In June, authorities announced an extension of a waiver on hoteliers’ operating fees for two more years. They also scrapped a proposed tourism fee for visitors flying into the country.

However some stakeholders are concerned that the country’s infrastructure may not be able to keep up with travellers’ demands.

“If more people are coming, it means the country as a whole… has to prepare our resources to welcome them,” said Kantapong Thananuangroj, president of the Thai Tourism Promotion Association.

“If not, [the tourists] may not be impressed with the experience they have in Thailand and we may not get a second chance,” he said.

Chamnan Srisawat, president of the Tourism Council of Thailand, said he foresees a “bottleneck in air traffic as the incoming flights may not increase in time to catch up with the demands of the travellers”.

Some people have also raised safety concerns after rumours that tourists have been kidnapped and sent across the border to work in scam centres in Myanmar or Cambodia.

fatal shooting in Bangkok’s most famous shopping mall last year has also caused concern among visitors.

Reports /Trainviral/

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Royal Mail will deliver letters forever

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The prospective new owner of Royal Mail has said he will not walk away from the requirement to deliver letters throughout the UK six days a week, as long as he is running the service.

“As long as I’m alive, I completely exclude this,” Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky told the BBC.

Mr Kretinsky has had a £3.6bn offer for Royal Mail accepted by its board.

Shareholders are expected to approve the deal in the coming months, but the government also has a say over whether it goes ahead.

Currently the Universal Service Obligation (USO) requires Royal Mail to deliver letters six days a week throughout the country for the same price. But questions have been raised over whether the service could be reduced in the future.

In an exclusive interview with the BBC, Mr Kretinsky also said he would be willing to share profits with employees, if given the go-ahead to buy the group.

However, he appeared to reject the idea of employees having a stake in Royal Mail, which unions have called for in exchange for their support.

The Royal Mail board agreed a £3.6bn takeover offer from Mr Kretinsky in May for the 500-year-old organisation, which employs more than 150,000 people. Including assumed debts, the offer is worth £5bn.

But because Royal Mail is a nationally important company, the government has the power to scrutinise and potentially block the deal.

As well as keeping the new government on side, Mr Kretinsky also faces the task of convincing postal unions that the proposed deal will benefit employees.

The USO is a potential sticking point for both the government and unions.

Royal Mail is required by law to deliver letters six days a week and parcels five days a week to every address in the UK for a fixed price.

How well this has actually been working in practice is a different matter. Ten years ago, 92% of first class post arrived on time. By the end of last year it was down to 74%, according to the regulator Ofcom.

Last year the regulator fined Royal Mail £5.6m for failing to meet its delivery targets.

Royal Mail has been pushing for this obligation to be watered down. It wants to cut second class letter deliveries to every other weekday, saying this will save £300m, and lead to “fewer than 1,000” voluntary redundancies.

‘Unconditional commitment’

Mr Kretinsky has committed in writing to honouring the USO, but only for five years.

And after that, in theory, the new owners could just walk away from it.

However, Mr Kretinsky told the BBC: “As long as I’m alive, I completely exclude this, and I’m sure that anybody that would be my successor would absolutely understand this.

“I say this as an absolutely clear, unconditional commitment: Royal Mail is going to be the provider of Universal Service Obligation in the UK, I would say forever, as long as the service is going to be needed, and as long as we are going to be around.”

Mr Kretinsky added that the written five-year commitment was “the longest commitment that has ever been offered in a situation like this”.

Woman's hand posting a letter into a red post box

Another potential stumbling block for the deal, however, is how the company will be structured.

Unions would like to see the company renationalised, but Dave Ward, general secretary of the Communication Workers Union (CWU), told the BBC that would be “difficult in the current political and economic environment”.

Instead, what the CWU is pushing for is “a different model of ownership” – that is, where the employees part-own the business.

To get its support for the takeover, the union wants employees to share ownership of the company, along with other concessions including board representation for workers.

It says profit sharing is “not going to be enough to deliver our support and the support of the workforce”.

If the union doesn’t get what it wants, it won’t rule out industrial action, Mr Ward said. Its members went on strike in 2022 and 2023.

Although Mr Kretinsky said he is “very open” to profit sharing, he is not in favour of shared ownership.

“I don’t think the ownership stake is the right model,” he said. “The logic is: share of profit, yes, [but an] ownership structure creates a lot of complexity.

“For instance, what happens if the employee leaves? He has shares, he is leaving, he is not working for the company, he [still] needs remunerating.”

Mr Kretinsky said he didn’t want to create “some anonymous structure” but instead “remunerate the people who are working for the company, and creating value for the company”.

The union is also concerned about job losses and changes to the terms and conditions of postal workers’ contracts.

Mr Kretinsky has guaranteed no compulsory redundancies or changes in terms and conditions but only until 2025.

“If we are more successful, and we have more parcels to be delivered, we need not less people, but we need more people,” he said. “So really, job cuts are not part of our plan at all.”

He said if the management, union and employees work together, “we will be successful”.

Another concern is the potential break-up of the business.

The profit for Royal Mail’s parent company last year was entirely generated by its German and Canadian logistics and parcels business, GLS. Royal Mail itself made a loss.

Mr Kretinsky has promised not to split off GLS or load the parent company with excessive debt, although borrowings will rise if the deal goes through.

But he has a way to go to convince the CWU.

“I can’t think of any other country in the world that would just just hand over its entire postal service to an overseas equity investor,” Mr Ward of the CWU said.

However, Mr Kretinsky said that the postal unions “do understand that we are on the same ship, and that we need this ship to be successful, and that if we are there, we don’t have any real problems to deal with, because the sky is blue, and it’s blue for everybody.”

The union cannot stop this deal but the government can block it under the National Security and Investment Act.

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has said he will scrutinise the assurances and guarantees given and called on Mr Kretinsky to work constructively with the unions.

Mr Kretinsky may say that he and the unions are ultimately on the same ship but, as things stand, they are not on the same page.

Who is Daniel Kretinsky?

Daniel Kretinsky started his career as a lawyer in his hometown of Brno, before moving to Prague.

He then made serious money in Central and Eastern European energy interests.

This includes Eustream, which transports Russian gas via pipelines that run through Ukraine, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

He then diversified into other investments, including an almost 10% stake in UK supermarket chain Sainsbury’s and a 27% share in Premier League club West Ham United.

The Czech businessman is worth about £6bn, according to reports.

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