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More people looking for work as vacancies fall

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The number of people looking for work has risen as job vacancies fall suggesting that the uncertain economic outlook is hitting employment.

About 220,000 more people were seeking work between December and February than in the three months before.

Unemployment rose slightly and job vacancies fell for the ninth time in a row, official figures suggest.

However, the figures also showed a rise in the employment rate as more people returned to the jobs market.

Overall, UK economic growth has been flat since spring last year, with the effects of high energy prices and rising interest rates taking their toll, along with strikes in several sectors.

Inflation – the rate at which prices rise – has been running at more than 10%, remaining close to 40-year highs, and the latest earnings figures showed that pay increases continue to lag behind rising prices.

Annual growth in regular pay, which excludes bonuses, was 6.6% between December and February, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

However, when taking into inflation into account, regular pay fell by 2.3%.

The ONS figures showed that the employment rate edged up to 75.8% in the three months to February. In the same period, the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, up from 3.7% in the previous three months.

Job vacancies fell for the ninth time in a row with companies blaming economic pressures for holding back on hiring new staff.

Line chart showing there were 1.1 million vacancies in January to March 2023, following nine falls in a row.

From January to the end of March, the number of vacancies fell by 47,000 from the previous quarter to 1,105,000, although the ONS noted vacancy numbers remained at “very high levels”.

Michael Stull, the managing director of employment agency ManpowerGroup, told the BBC’s Today programme: “We are starting to see a pullback in demand from employers. However, we’re still in a strong position.”

“We’re seeing more people coming back into the workforce,” he added, noting that more over-50s and younger people were returning to the jobs market.

Daniel Ashville Louisy
Daniel Ashville Louisy says firms are starting to put construction projects on hold

Daniel Ashville Louisy, director of construction firm Ashville Aggregates, said that despite high demand at the moment, many firms were starting to put construction projects on hold due to uncertainty in the economy.

He also said that profits were being squeezed because wages have risen so much.

“We have labourers earning the money that plumbers and carpenters were earning like, two and a half, three years ago,” he said.

“But everyone wants the job to be cheaper because they have no certainty… so we don’t have the money in the job to bring new people on board at the higher wage bracket.”

Six expert tips for finding work

1. Search beyond a 40 mile radius – Remote, hybrid and flexible working open up opportunities further away.

2. Use key words in your searches – Online algorithms will pick up on daily searches and send you more of the same.

3.Don’t wait for a job to be advertised – Contact a manager at a business that you like the look of as you never know what opportunities might be coming up.

4. Sell your skills – Use social media sites like Linkedin which showcase your skills and experience. Other platforms like Twitter and Instagram can prove useful when touting yourself out to potential employers as well.

5. Get learning – While you’re on the hunt for a job see if there are way to fill gaps in your CV with free courses, volunteering or shadowing.

6. Celebrate the small wins – set personal targets, like a tracker of the number of jobs to apply for in a week or a certain number of cold emails and acknowledge the little wins along the way to keep your spirits up.

You can read tips from careers experts in full here.

Reacting to the latest figures, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “While unemployment remains close to historic lows, rising prices continue to eat into pay cheques which is why halving inflation this year is one of our top economic priorities.”

However, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government was holding the UK back. “Their lack of ambition for Britain is leaving real wages down, families worse off, hundreds of thousands fewer people in work and our economy lagging”.

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said: “The Conservative party’s gross mismanagement of the British economy has led to inflation rising and growth plummeting.”

You always have to be careful about placing too much emphasis on one set of figures, but the rate of pay rises across the economy has surprised economists on the upside.

We may or may not be about to go through a full-blown recession or a more modest downturn.

However, so far the challenges facing the economy have only had a modest effect on unemployment, smudging only slightly the clear picture that it’s a good time to be looking for work.

At 6.9%, the average pay rise in the private sector is down from a peak, but only slightly.

It’s still one of the biggest rises in average earnings anyone has seen for most of the past twenty years.

Even in the public sector, employers who have a free hand are paying more to try to overcome the ongoing recruitment crisis – with wages up 5.3% in the year to February.

Few will need reminding, though, that against double-digit inflation that’s still one of the biggest real-terms pay cuts both private and public sector workers have had to endure since the 1930s.

Reports /TrainViral/

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Six tonnes of cocaine found in banana shipment

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Sniffer dogs in Ecuador have found 6.23 tonnes of cocaine hidden in a banana shipment, police say.

The dogs alerted their handlers, who seized 5,630 parcels filled with a white substance that later tested positive for cocaine.

The shipment was destined for Germany, officials said, and would have been worth $224m (£173m) had it reached its destination.

Five people had been arrested following the discovery, according to the prosecutor-general’s office.

Police said they had found the massive cocaine haul during a routine inspection of container stored at Posorja deepwater port south-west of Ecuador’s largest city, Guayaquil.

The cocaine parcels had been hidden beneath crates of bananas destined for export.

One of those arrested in connection to the drug discovery was a representative of the export company responsible for the shipment, whom prosecutors said had been present at the inspection and gave officials the names of the four other suspects.

They include the managers of the banana plantation where the cocaine is suspected to have been added to the fruit shipment, as well as the driver who took the container to the port.

Ecuador has become a major transit country for cocaine produced in neighbouring Peru and Colombia, with transnational criminal gangs using Ecuador’s ports to ship the drug to Europe and the US.

Last year, Ecuadorean security forces seized more than 200 tonnes of drugs, most of it cocaine. Only the US and Colombia seized more drugs in 2023.

Gangs have caused a wave of violent crime in Ecuador, leading President Daniel Noboa to declare a state of emergency and deploy tens of thousands of police officers and soldiers in an effort to combat them.

These security forces have stopped large amounts of cocaine from being shipped to Europe.

In January, officers found the largest stash ever to be seized in Ecuador – 22 tonnes of cocaine – buried in a pig farm.

However, extortion, kidnappings and murders remain high in the Andean country.

Reports /Trainviral/

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Thailand expands v-free entry to 93 countries

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Thailand has expanded its visa-free entry scheme to 93 countries and territories as it seeks to revitalize its tourism industry.

Visitors can stay in the South-East Asian nation for up to 60 days under the new scheme that took effect on Monday,

Previously, passport holders from 57 countries were allowed to enter without a visa.

Tourism is a key pillar of the Thai economy, but it has not fully recovered from the pandemic.

Thailand recorded 17.5 million foreign tourists arrivals in the first six months of 2024, up 35% from the same period last year, according to official data. However, the numbers pale in comparison to pre-pandemic levels.

Most of the visitors were from China, Malaysia and India.

Tourism revenue during the same period came in at 858 billion baht ($23.6bn; £18.3bn), less than a quarter of the government’s target.

Millions of tourists flock to Thailand every year for its golden temples, white sand beaches, picturesque mountains and vibrant night life.

The revised visa-free rules are part of a broader plan to boost tourism.

Also on Monday, Thailand introduced a new five-year visa for remote workers, that allows holders to stay for up to 180 days each year.

The country will also allow visiting students, who earn a bachelor’s degree or higher in Thailand, to stay for one year after graduation to find a job or travel.

In June, authorities announced an extension of a waiver on hoteliers’ operating fees for two more years. They also scrapped a proposed tourism fee for visitors flying into the country.

However some stakeholders are concerned that the country’s infrastructure may not be able to keep up with travellers’ demands.

“If more people are coming, it means the country as a whole… has to prepare our resources to welcome them,” said Kantapong Thananuangroj, president of the Thai Tourism Promotion Association.

“If not, [the tourists] may not be impressed with the experience they have in Thailand and we may not get a second chance,” he said.

Chamnan Srisawat, president of the Tourism Council of Thailand, said he foresees a “bottleneck in air traffic as the incoming flights may not increase in time to catch up with the demands of the travellers”.

Some people have also raised safety concerns after rumours that tourists have been kidnapped and sent across the border to work in scam centres in Myanmar or Cambodia.

fatal shooting in Bangkok’s most famous shopping mall last year has also caused concern among visitors.

Reports /Trainviral/

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Royal Mail will deliver letters forever

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The prospective new owner of Royal Mail has said he will not walk away from the requirement to deliver letters throughout the UK six days a week, as long as he is running the service.

“As long as I’m alive, I completely exclude this,” Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky told the BBC.

Mr Kretinsky has had a £3.6bn offer for Royal Mail accepted by its board.

Shareholders are expected to approve the deal in the coming months, but the government also has a say over whether it goes ahead.

Currently the Universal Service Obligation (USO) requires Royal Mail to deliver letters six days a week throughout the country for the same price. But questions have been raised over whether the service could be reduced in the future.

In an exclusive interview with the BBC, Mr Kretinsky also said he would be willing to share profits with employees, if given the go-ahead to buy the group.

However, he appeared to reject the idea of employees having a stake in Royal Mail, which unions have called for in exchange for their support.

The Royal Mail board agreed a £3.6bn takeover offer from Mr Kretinsky in May for the 500-year-old organisation, which employs more than 150,000 people. Including assumed debts, the offer is worth £5bn.

But because Royal Mail is a nationally important company, the government has the power to scrutinise and potentially block the deal.

As well as keeping the new government on side, Mr Kretinsky also faces the task of convincing postal unions that the proposed deal will benefit employees.

The USO is a potential sticking point for both the government and unions.

Royal Mail is required by law to deliver letters six days a week and parcels five days a week to every address in the UK for a fixed price.

How well this has actually been working in practice is a different matter. Ten years ago, 92% of first class post arrived on time. By the end of last year it was down to 74%, according to the regulator Ofcom.

Last year the regulator fined Royal Mail £5.6m for failing to meet its delivery targets.

Royal Mail has been pushing for this obligation to be watered down. It wants to cut second class letter deliveries to every other weekday, saying this will save £300m, and lead to “fewer than 1,000” voluntary redundancies.

‘Unconditional commitment’

Mr Kretinsky has committed in writing to honouring the USO, but only for five years.

And after that, in theory, the new owners could just walk away from it.

However, Mr Kretinsky told the BBC: “As long as I’m alive, I completely exclude this, and I’m sure that anybody that would be my successor would absolutely understand this.

“I say this as an absolutely clear, unconditional commitment: Royal Mail is going to be the provider of Universal Service Obligation in the UK, I would say forever, as long as the service is going to be needed, and as long as we are going to be around.”

Mr Kretinsky added that the written five-year commitment was “the longest commitment that has ever been offered in a situation like this”.

Woman's hand posting a letter into a red post box

Another potential stumbling block for the deal, however, is how the company will be structured.

Unions would like to see the company renationalised, but Dave Ward, general secretary of the Communication Workers Union (CWU), told the BBC that would be “difficult in the current political and economic environment”.

Instead, what the CWU is pushing for is “a different model of ownership” – that is, where the employees part-own the business.

To get its support for the takeover, the union wants employees to share ownership of the company, along with other concessions including board representation for workers.

It says profit sharing is “not going to be enough to deliver our support and the support of the workforce”.

If the union doesn’t get what it wants, it won’t rule out industrial action, Mr Ward said. Its members went on strike in 2022 and 2023.

Although Mr Kretinsky said he is “very open” to profit sharing, he is not in favour of shared ownership.

“I don’t think the ownership stake is the right model,” he said. “The logic is: share of profit, yes, [but an] ownership structure creates a lot of complexity.

“For instance, what happens if the employee leaves? He has shares, he is leaving, he is not working for the company, he [still] needs remunerating.”

Mr Kretinsky said he didn’t want to create “some anonymous structure” but instead “remunerate the people who are working for the company, and creating value for the company”.

The union is also concerned about job losses and changes to the terms and conditions of postal workers’ contracts.

Mr Kretinsky has guaranteed no compulsory redundancies or changes in terms and conditions but only until 2025.

“If we are more successful, and we have more parcels to be delivered, we need not less people, but we need more people,” he said. “So really, job cuts are not part of our plan at all.”

He said if the management, union and employees work together, “we will be successful”.

Another concern is the potential break-up of the business.

The profit for Royal Mail’s parent company last year was entirely generated by its German and Canadian logistics and parcels business, GLS. Royal Mail itself made a loss.

Mr Kretinsky has promised not to split off GLS or load the parent company with excessive debt, although borrowings will rise if the deal goes through.

But he has a way to go to convince the CWU.

“I can’t think of any other country in the world that would just just hand over its entire postal service to an overseas equity investor,” Mr Ward of the CWU said.

However, Mr Kretinsky said that the postal unions “do understand that we are on the same ship, and that we need this ship to be successful, and that if we are there, we don’t have any real problems to deal with, because the sky is blue, and it’s blue for everybody.”

The union cannot stop this deal but the government can block it under the National Security and Investment Act.

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has said he will scrutinise the assurances and guarantees given and called on Mr Kretinsky to work constructively with the unions.

Mr Kretinsky may say that he and the unions are ultimately on the same ship but, as things stand, they are not on the same page.

Who is Daniel Kretinsky?

Daniel Kretinsky started his career as a lawyer in his hometown of Brno, before moving to Prague.

He then made serious money in Central and Eastern European energy interests.

This includes Eustream, which transports Russian gas via pipelines that run through Ukraine, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

He then diversified into other investments, including an almost 10% stake in UK supermarket chain Sainsbury’s and a 27% share in Premier League club West Ham United.

The Czech businessman is worth about £6bn, according to reports.

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