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IMF expects UK economy to avoid recession

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The UK economy is expected to avoid a recession this year, the International Monetary Fund has said, after it sharply upgraded its growth forecast.

It now expects the UK to grow by 0.4% in 2023, whereas last month it forecast the economy would contract by 0.3%.

Growth would be helped by “resilient demand” and falling energy prices.

But the IMF said inflation “remains stubbornly high” and that higher interest rates will need to remain in place if it is to be brought down.

Speaking in London, the IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva said the upgraded growth figure had been sparked by falling energy prices, easing concerns over Brexit and improved financial stability.

She added that the government had taken “decisive and responsible steps in recent months”.

But Ms Georgieva also said now was not the time to look at cutting taxes, warning that at the moment “neither is it affordable, nor is it desirable”.

The IMF report noted that the risks for the UK economy were “considerable”, with the biggest danger coming from “greater-than-anticipated persistence in price- and wage-setting”, which would keep inflation higher for longer.

It also said the UK must address the record numbers of people not working, many of whom have long-term illnesses.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the report “credits our action to restore stability and tame inflation”.

“If we stick to the plan, the IMF confirm our long-term growth prospects are stronger than in Germany, France and Italy.”

Pat McFadden, Labour’s shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said the report revealed “the fragility of the UK economy, highlighting the slowdown in economic activity since last year and stubbornly high prices”.

Rates warning

The IMF said faster-than-usual pay growth and global supply chains returning to normal after the pandemic had also contributed to its growth upgrade.

However, it noted that the outlook for growth “remains subdued”.

The IMF forecasts the economy will grow by 1% in 2024, rising to 2% in 2025 and 2026.

It also predicts that inflation will not return to the Bank of England’s target of 2% until mid-2025, which is later than it had forecast previously.

“Further monetary tightening will likely be needed,” the agency said, and interest rates “may have to remain high for longer to bring down inflation more assuredly”.

Earlier, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, told MPs on the Treasury Select Committee inflation had “turned the corner”.

However, he admitted that inflation is currently 0.8% higher than the Bank of England had expected in February, blaming the high price of food and goods like clothing and footwear as underlying reasons.

The Bank has put up interest rates 12 times in a row in an attempt to bring down inflation, but this has pushed up costs for many mortgage holders.

On interest rates, Mr Bailey said: “I can’t tell you whether we’re at the peak. I think we’re nearer to the peak than we were.”

With this IMF health check on the UK’s economic recovery, the chancellor gets some ammo in his battles with the opposition, inside and outside his party. The UK this year is no longer bottom of the G7 or G20 league tables.

The IMF also goes out of its way to praise UK progress, the Budget, and the response to banking pressures and the prime minister’s Northern Ireland Brexit deal.

The result is a punchy upgrade within just a few weeks from decline of 0.3% to growth of 0.4%.

To be clear, this is closer to zero than normal growth, and definitely not sunlit uplands. But it does also significantly exceed the worst recessionary forecasts from around the time of the mini-budget, and the series of global crises.

The IMF also helped the chancellor in his battles with the right of the party over both Brexit and tax cuts. The Windsor Framework has boosted investment confidence, it said, and the time and place for changes to tax and spend policy had not come.

But the IMF also deployed a new key phrase, warning against “premature celebration” on inflation.

Its managing director Kristalina Georgieva told me: “What is most concerning is food prices. Even with energy prices, trimming down, staying as high as it is, it does mean that interest rates will have to remain higher for longer. The discussion around interest rates has somewhat shifted from ‘how high?’ to ‘for how long?'”

That was a clear hint that expectations that interest rates could be expected to fall within a year may be off the mark.

Sticky inflation, and especially food price inflation, is the enduring concern.

The IMF works to stabilise the global economy and one of its key roles is to act as an early economic warning system.

Last year, the fund openly criticised the short-lived plans by the UK government, then led by Liz Truss, for tax cuts. It said the measures, which were unveiled in September’s mini-budget but quickly scrapped, were likely to fuel the cost of living crisis.

One of the criticisms of the mini-budget was that there was no analysis from the government’s independent forecasting body, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

In its latest forecast, the IMF recommended that all major fiscal policy changes should be accompanied by OBR forecasts.

Borrowing jumps

Earlier on Tuesday, official figures showed UK government borrowing hit a higher-than-expected £25.6bn in April, the second-highest borrowing figure for the month since records began in 1993.

The borrowing figure – which represents the difference between spending and tax income – was £11.9bn more than for the same month last year, with inflation pushing up interest payments on debt partly to blame.

The Office for National Statistics said interest payments on central government debt hit £9.8bn in April. That was £3.1bn more than a year earlier, and was the highest April figure since monthly records began in 1997.

Inflation figures due on Wednesday are expected to show the rate falling below 10% for the first time since last July.

Reports /TrainViral/

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Six tonnes of cocaine found in banana shipment

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Sniffer dogs in Ecuador have found 6.23 tonnes of cocaine hidden in a banana shipment, police say.

The dogs alerted their handlers, who seized 5,630 parcels filled with a white substance that later tested positive for cocaine.

The shipment was destined for Germany, officials said, and would have been worth $224m (£173m) had it reached its destination.

Five people had been arrested following the discovery, according to the prosecutor-general’s office.

Police said they had found the massive cocaine haul during a routine inspection of container stored at Posorja deepwater port south-west of Ecuador’s largest city, Guayaquil.

The cocaine parcels had been hidden beneath crates of bananas destined for export.

One of those arrested in connection to the drug discovery was a representative of the export company responsible for the shipment, whom prosecutors said had been present at the inspection and gave officials the names of the four other suspects.

They include the managers of the banana plantation where the cocaine is suspected to have been added to the fruit shipment, as well as the driver who took the container to the port.

Ecuador has become a major transit country for cocaine produced in neighbouring Peru and Colombia, with transnational criminal gangs using Ecuador’s ports to ship the drug to Europe and the US.

Last year, Ecuadorean security forces seized more than 200 tonnes of drugs, most of it cocaine. Only the US and Colombia seized more drugs in 2023.

Gangs have caused a wave of violent crime in Ecuador, leading President Daniel Noboa to declare a state of emergency and deploy tens of thousands of police officers and soldiers in an effort to combat them.

These security forces have stopped large amounts of cocaine from being shipped to Europe.

In January, officers found the largest stash ever to be seized in Ecuador – 22 tonnes of cocaine – buried in a pig farm.

However, extortion, kidnappings and murders remain high in the Andean country.

Reports /Trainviral/

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Thailand expands v-free entry to 93 countries

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Thailand has expanded its visa-free entry scheme to 93 countries and territories as it seeks to revitalize its tourism industry.

Visitors can stay in the South-East Asian nation for up to 60 days under the new scheme that took effect on Monday,

Previously, passport holders from 57 countries were allowed to enter without a visa.

Tourism is a key pillar of the Thai economy, but it has not fully recovered from the pandemic.

Thailand recorded 17.5 million foreign tourists arrivals in the first six months of 2024, up 35% from the same period last year, according to official data. However, the numbers pale in comparison to pre-pandemic levels.

Most of the visitors were from China, Malaysia and India.

Tourism revenue during the same period came in at 858 billion baht ($23.6bn; £18.3bn), less than a quarter of the government’s target.

Millions of tourists flock to Thailand every year for its golden temples, white sand beaches, picturesque mountains and vibrant night life.

The revised visa-free rules are part of a broader plan to boost tourism.

Also on Monday, Thailand introduced a new five-year visa for remote workers, that allows holders to stay for up to 180 days each year.

The country will also allow visiting students, who earn a bachelor’s degree or higher in Thailand, to stay for one year after graduation to find a job or travel.

In June, authorities announced an extension of a waiver on hoteliers’ operating fees for two more years. They also scrapped a proposed tourism fee for visitors flying into the country.

However some stakeholders are concerned that the country’s infrastructure may not be able to keep up with travellers’ demands.

“If more people are coming, it means the country as a whole… has to prepare our resources to welcome them,” said Kantapong Thananuangroj, president of the Thai Tourism Promotion Association.

“If not, [the tourists] may not be impressed with the experience they have in Thailand and we may not get a second chance,” he said.

Chamnan Srisawat, president of the Tourism Council of Thailand, said he foresees a “bottleneck in air traffic as the incoming flights may not increase in time to catch up with the demands of the travellers”.

Some people have also raised safety concerns after rumours that tourists have been kidnapped and sent across the border to work in scam centres in Myanmar or Cambodia.

fatal shooting in Bangkok’s most famous shopping mall last year has also caused concern among visitors.

Reports /Trainviral/

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Royal Mail will deliver letters forever

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The prospective new owner of Royal Mail has said he will not walk away from the requirement to deliver letters throughout the UK six days a week, as long as he is running the service.

“As long as I’m alive, I completely exclude this,” Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky told the BBC.

Mr Kretinsky has had a £3.6bn offer for Royal Mail accepted by its board.

Shareholders are expected to approve the deal in the coming months, but the government also has a say over whether it goes ahead.

Currently the Universal Service Obligation (USO) requires Royal Mail to deliver letters six days a week throughout the country for the same price. But questions have been raised over whether the service could be reduced in the future.

In an exclusive interview with the BBC, Mr Kretinsky also said he would be willing to share profits with employees, if given the go-ahead to buy the group.

However, he appeared to reject the idea of employees having a stake in Royal Mail, which unions have called for in exchange for their support.

The Royal Mail board agreed a £3.6bn takeover offer from Mr Kretinsky in May for the 500-year-old organisation, which employs more than 150,000 people. Including assumed debts, the offer is worth £5bn.

But because Royal Mail is a nationally important company, the government has the power to scrutinise and potentially block the deal.

As well as keeping the new government on side, Mr Kretinsky also faces the task of convincing postal unions that the proposed deal will benefit employees.

The USO is a potential sticking point for both the government and unions.

Royal Mail is required by law to deliver letters six days a week and parcels five days a week to every address in the UK for a fixed price.

How well this has actually been working in practice is a different matter. Ten years ago, 92% of first class post arrived on time. By the end of last year it was down to 74%, according to the regulator Ofcom.

Last year the regulator fined Royal Mail £5.6m for failing to meet its delivery targets.

Royal Mail has been pushing for this obligation to be watered down. It wants to cut second class letter deliveries to every other weekday, saying this will save £300m, and lead to “fewer than 1,000” voluntary redundancies.

‘Unconditional commitment’

Mr Kretinsky has committed in writing to honouring the USO, but only for five years.

And after that, in theory, the new owners could just walk away from it.

However, Mr Kretinsky told the BBC: “As long as I’m alive, I completely exclude this, and I’m sure that anybody that would be my successor would absolutely understand this.

“I say this as an absolutely clear, unconditional commitment: Royal Mail is going to be the provider of Universal Service Obligation in the UK, I would say forever, as long as the service is going to be needed, and as long as we are going to be around.”

Mr Kretinsky added that the written five-year commitment was “the longest commitment that has ever been offered in a situation like this”.

Woman's hand posting a letter into a red post box

Another potential stumbling block for the deal, however, is how the company will be structured.

Unions would like to see the company renationalised, but Dave Ward, general secretary of the Communication Workers Union (CWU), told the BBC that would be “difficult in the current political and economic environment”.

Instead, what the CWU is pushing for is “a different model of ownership” – that is, where the employees part-own the business.

To get its support for the takeover, the union wants employees to share ownership of the company, along with other concessions including board representation for workers.

It says profit sharing is “not going to be enough to deliver our support and the support of the workforce”.

If the union doesn’t get what it wants, it won’t rule out industrial action, Mr Ward said. Its members went on strike in 2022 and 2023.

Although Mr Kretinsky said he is “very open” to profit sharing, he is not in favour of shared ownership.

“I don’t think the ownership stake is the right model,” he said. “The logic is: share of profit, yes, [but an] ownership structure creates a lot of complexity.

“For instance, what happens if the employee leaves? He has shares, he is leaving, he is not working for the company, he [still] needs remunerating.”

Mr Kretinsky said he didn’t want to create “some anonymous structure” but instead “remunerate the people who are working for the company, and creating value for the company”.

The union is also concerned about job losses and changes to the terms and conditions of postal workers’ contracts.

Mr Kretinsky has guaranteed no compulsory redundancies or changes in terms and conditions but only until 2025.

“If we are more successful, and we have more parcels to be delivered, we need not less people, but we need more people,” he said. “So really, job cuts are not part of our plan at all.”

He said if the management, union and employees work together, “we will be successful”.

Another concern is the potential break-up of the business.

The profit for Royal Mail’s parent company last year was entirely generated by its German and Canadian logistics and parcels business, GLS. Royal Mail itself made a loss.

Mr Kretinsky has promised not to split off GLS or load the parent company with excessive debt, although borrowings will rise if the deal goes through.

But he has a way to go to convince the CWU.

“I can’t think of any other country in the world that would just just hand over its entire postal service to an overseas equity investor,” Mr Ward of the CWU said.

However, Mr Kretinsky said that the postal unions “do understand that we are on the same ship, and that we need this ship to be successful, and that if we are there, we don’t have any real problems to deal with, because the sky is blue, and it’s blue for everybody.”

The union cannot stop this deal but the government can block it under the National Security and Investment Act.

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has said he will scrutinise the assurances and guarantees given and called on Mr Kretinsky to work constructively with the unions.

Mr Kretinsky may say that he and the unions are ultimately on the same ship but, as things stand, they are not on the same page.

Who is Daniel Kretinsky?

Daniel Kretinsky started his career as a lawyer in his hometown of Brno, before moving to Prague.

He then made serious money in Central and Eastern European energy interests.

This includes Eustream, which transports Russian gas via pipelines that run through Ukraine, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

He then diversified into other investments, including an almost 10% stake in UK supermarket chain Sainsbury’s and a 27% share in Premier League club West Ham United.

The Czech businessman is worth about £6bn, according to reports.

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