Finance

Here’s the inflation breakdown for February

Published

2 years ago

March 15, 2023

The annual inflation rate in February continued its gradual cooling trend, though it remained well above policymakers’ target.

Inflation is a measure of how quickly prices are rising or falling in the U.S. economy.

The consumer price index, a key inflation barometer, rose by 6% in February relative to a year earlier, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. The index accounts for price changes across a broad basket of consumer goods and services, in categories such as energy, food, housing and entertainment.

February’s reading was in line with economists’ projections. It follows a 6.4% annual gain in January and 6.5% in December and was the smallest 12-month increase since September 2021.

“It’s still high, obviously,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said of the annual inflation rate. “It’s slowly but steadily receding.”

“There are some good reasons to be optimistic inflation will continue to fall back over the next year.”

A positive but declining inflation rate doesn’t mean consumer prices are falling; it signals that they’re increasing more slowly.

Inflation will likely be close to 3% by year’s end, Zandi said. However, that estimate assumes the U.S. avoids recession, which would rein in inflation more quickly but trigger negative side effects such as rising unemployment. Fear of this so-called “hard landing” scenario increased in recent days after failures in the banking sector, though regulators are trying to contain the fallout.

Here’s what drove February inflation

Housing prices jumped by 8.1% in the past year, according to the BLS — accounting for more than 60% of inflation after stripping out food and energy prices, which can be volatile.

Other “notable increases” included motor vehicle insurance (up 14.5%), household furnishings and operations (up 6.1%), new vehicles (up 5.8%) and recreation (up 5%). Grocery prices are up 10.2%, and dining out is up 8.4%. Energy prices jumped 5.2%.

Overall inflation has moderated from June’s pandemic-era peak of over 9% but remains higher than at any point since the 1980s.

What’s front of mind for investors? The fight against inflation or risk of more turmoil in the banking sector?

“The pervasiveness of inflation is an ongoing issue,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

“This is not confined to one or two categories or limited to discretionary spending,” he added. “It’s broad-based across categories that are absolute necessities in the household budget.”

But it appears new car prices will soften as China reopens and supply chains normalize, housing inflation is poised to slow, and wage growth is cooling in the labor market — all of which should translate to tamer inflation, Zandi said.

Inflation a byproduct of supply-and-demand imbalance

Consumer prices began rising rapidly in early 2021 as the U.S. economy started to reopen after the pandemic-related shutdown.

The increase resulted from supply-and-demand dynamics, economists said.

Americans who’d been confined to their homes for a year unable to spend on dining out, entertainment and vacations unleashed a flurry of pent-up demand, aided by savings that had been amassed from government relief.

The rapid reopening snarled global supply chains, a dynamic exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In other words, supply couldn’t keep up with consumers’ willingness to spend.

Inflation was initially confined to physical goods such as used cars and trucks. Goods inflation has retreated, but inflation has spread to the services sector largely due to businesses’ high demand for workers, economists said.

That labor demand has put upward pressure on wages, feeding into higher services prices, said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.

“That appears to be the bigger [inflation] factor now,” Ashworth said.

SVB failure spurred ‘hard landing’ fears

It’s unclear how quickly inflation will retreat from here, economists said.

The Federal Reserve aims for a long-term rate of around 2%. The central bank has been raising interest rates aggressively to tame inflation. Higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses are expected to slow the economy, feeding into reduced demand for labor, slower wage growth and, ultimately, lower inflation.

The Fed is trying to manufacture a so-called “soft landing,” whereby inflation slows but the economy doesn’t tip into a recession.

Fears of a “hard landing” have risen in recent days, after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed, triggering concerns that the contagion could spread to other financial institutions. SVB’s failure was the biggest since the 2008 financial crisis and the second-biggest in U.S. history.

A lot of this is based on irrational fear.

Paul Ashworth

CHIEF NORTH AMERICA ECONOMIST AT CAPITAL ECONOMICS

The federal government stepped in on Sunday to alleviate concern. Regulators backstopped uninsured consumer deposits at the banks and offered short-term loans to other institutions affected by market instability.

“A lot of this is based on irrational fear,” Ashworth said of customers rushing to take their money out of banks, known as bank runs.

Inflation would come down more quickly in a “hard landing” scenario but at the expense of an economic downturn, he said. One example of how that could play out is if consumers continue to pull deposits from banks, constraining banks’ ability to lend money, thereby tightening credit for businesses, which might pull back on hiring, slashing confidence across the economy.

It’s too early to tell whether the government’s efforts will bolster consumer confidence and stem the contagion or irrational behavior will persist, Ashworth said.

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Crypto

Bitcoin’s Recovery – the Downturn Is Over

Published

6 months ago

July 16, 2024

The market is currently in a news-driven environment where the prices of cryptocurrencies have been determined by news agenda rather than fundamentals.

Bitfinex analysts have warned crypto investors to be cautious as bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery over the weekend is not a sign that its correction is over; the asset could witness more bloodshed in the near term.

In the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, experts deemed the market’s reaction this week critical, especially as supply alleviated over the weekend could return when traditional markets open.

“No Man’s Land”

Since Saturday, bitcoin has risen almost 10% from $57,600 to $63,000, closing last week in the green. The asset has surged above the 125-day range low of $60,200, which it broke through earlier this month after news of the German government’s massive BTC selling hit the market.

Market sentiment began to improve after reports that wallets linked to the German government were almost empty. However, the positive sentiment may not be sustained for long as the BTC the German authorities moved to trading desks and exchanges are yet to be sold.

While the supply from Germany appears to have been factored into bitcoin’s market price, Bitfinex analysts believe the end of selling pressure depends on how the involved trading desks execute their trades in the coming days.

Although the shift in sentiment underscores the market’s capacity to integrate new information and adjust expectations quickly, analysts think the market’s reaction over the first two trading days of the week cannot be overlooked for two reasons.

First, the low support level in the $60,200 range has now become a potential resistance line. Second, trading patterns over the past three months suggest that weekends are usually favorable for markets, especially on Saturdays when supply pressure seems to subside.

“We are now in no man’s land until we get clear resolution above or below this level,” the analysts said.

A News-Driven Environment

Besides the potential resistance level and three-month weekend trading pattern, the market is currently in a news-driven environment, where the prices of cryptocurrencies have been determined by news agendas rather than fundamentals.

Since selling pressure concerns are not yet completely obsolete due to upcoming Mt Gox creditor distributions, Bitfinex analysts expect such headlines to continue to have some impact on price movements. As such, the analysts urged investors to exercise caution in their trading strategies.

Reports /Trainviral/

Crypto

Bitcoin ETFs Saw $300M in Daily Net Inflows

Published

6 months ago

July 16, 2024

BlackRock’s IBIT led with $117.25 million in inflows on July 15, also being the most traded Bitcoin ETF.

The US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily net inflow of $301 million on July 15th. This extended their winning streak to seven consecutive days amidst a broader market recovery.

None of the ETFs recorded outflows for the day.

Bitcoin ETFs Rake in $16.11B in Net Inflows Since Jan

According to the data compiled by SoSoValue, BlackRock’s IBIT, the top spot Bitcoin ETF by net asset value, recorded the largest net inflows of the day at $117.25 million. IBIT was also the most actively traded Bitcoin ETF on Monday, with a volume of $1.24 billion. Ark Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB came in close behind with net inflows of $117.19 million.

Fidelity’s FBTC experienced net inflows of $36.15 million on Monday, while Bitwise’s BITB saw $15.24 million in inflows. VanEck’s HODL, Invesco and Galaxy Digital’s BTCO, and Franklin Templeton’s EZBC funds also recorded net inflows. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC and other ETFs, such as Valkyrie’s BRRR, WisdomTree’s BTCW, and Hashdex’s DEFI, registered no flows for the day.

A total of $2.26 billion was traded on Monday. The trading volume for these ETFs was less than in March when it exceeded $8 billion on some days. Meanwhile, these funds have collectively attracted $16.11 billion in net inflow since their January launch.

What’s Next For Bitcoin?

Earlier this month, bitcoin’s price decline was mainly due to fears of massive selling pressure from Mt. Gox and the German government’s BTC sales.

But the assassination attempt on pro-crypto former US President and presumptive Republican candidate Donald Trump at Saturday’s rally seemed to spark a recovery in the world’s largest digital asset, and experts are bullish on the asset’s price trajectory going forward. Bitcoin surged more than 9% over the past week and was currently trading slightly below $64,000.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt discussed bitcoin’s price outlook, suggesting a potential major rally. He referred to a pattern he terms “Hump->Slump->Bump->Dump->Pump” and highlighted that the July 5 double top attempt was a bear trap, confirmed by the July 13 close. He sees a likely continued upward trend but warned that a close below $56,000 would negate this bullish view.

“Bitcoin $BTC could be unfolding its often-repeated Hump…Slump…Bump…Dump…Pump chart construction. Jul 5 attempt at the double top was a bear trap, confirmed by Jul 13 close. Most likely scenario now is that bears are trapped. Close below $56k negates this interpretation”

Reports /Trainviral/

Crypto

LI.FI DeFi Platform Exploited, Over $8M Lost

Published

6 months ago

July 16, 2024

PeckShield alert reveals LI.FI’s protocol vulnerability is similar to a March 2022 attack, with the same bug recurring.

The decentralized finance (DeFi) platform LI.FI protocol has suffered an exploit amounting to over $8 million.

Cyvers Alerts reported detecting suspicious transactions within the LI.FI cross-chain transaction aggregator.

LI.FI Issues Warning After $8 Million Exploit

LI.FI confirmed the breach in a statement on July 16 via X: “Please do not interact with any http://LI.FI powered applications for now! We’re investigating a potential exploit.” The team clarified that users who did not set infinite approval are not at risk, emphasizing that only those who manually set infinite approvals seem to be affected.

According to Cyvers Alerts, more than $8 million in user funds have been stolen, with the majority being stablecoins. According to on-chain data, the hacker’s wallet holds 1,715 Ether (ETH) valued at $5.8 million and USDC, USDT, and DAI stablecoins.

Cyvers Alerts advised users to revoke relevant authorizations immediately, noting that the attacker is actively converting USDC and USDT into ETH.

Crypto security firm Decurity provided insights into the exploit, stating that it involves the LI.FI bridge. “The root cause is a possibility of an arbitrary call with user-controlled data via depositToGasZipERC20() in GasZipFacet, which was deployed 5 days ago,” Decurity explained on X.

“In general, the risks behind routers, cross-chain swaps, etc. are about token approvals. Raw native assets like (unwrapped) ETH are safe from these kinds of hacks b/c they don’t have approvals as an option. Most users & wallets also no longer do “infinite approvals” which gives a smart contract total control on removing any amount of their tokens. It’s important to understand which tokens you’re approving to which contracts.

This dashboard looks for all transactions of a user that intersects Lifi. Not all of these transactions indicate risk- but you can see how, broadly, integrations & layers of tech (like how Metamask bridge uses Lifi on BSC) can complicate how users do or don’t put their assets at risk. Revoke Cash is the most well known approval manager app.

But it’s also good security practice to simply rotate your address. New addresses start with 0 approvals, so starting fresh by moving your tokens to a fresh address is another good security practice.” – commented Carlos Mercado, Data Scientist at Flipside Crypto.

Recent Exploit Mirrors March 2022 Attack

Further analysis by PeckShield alert revealed that the vulnerability is similar to a previous attack on LI.FI’s protocol that occurred on March 20, 2022. That incident saw a bad actor exploit LI.FI’s smart contract, specifically the swapping feature, before bridging.

The attacker manipulated the system to call token contracts directly within their contract’s context, making users who had given infinite approval vulnerable. This exploit resulted in the theft of approximately 205 ETH from 29 wallets, affecting tokens such as USDC, MATIC, RPL, GNO, USDT, MVI, AUDIO, AAVE, JRT, and DAI.

“The bug is basically the same. Are we learning anything from the past lesson(s)?” PeckShield Alert said in a July 16 X post.

Following the 2022 incident, LI.FI disabled all swap methods in its smart contract and worked on developing a fix to prevent future vulnerabilities. However, the recurrence of a similar exploit raises concerns about the platform’s security measures and whether adequate steps were taken to address the vulnerabilities identified in the previous breach.

LI.FI is a liquidity aggregation protocol that allows users to trade across various blockchains, venues, and bridges.

Reports /Trainviral/