Business

US rates raised to highest level in 16 years

Published

2 years ago

May 4, 2023

The US central bank has raised interest rates to the highest level in 16 years as it battles to stabilise prices.

The Federal Reserve increased its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points – its 10th hike in 14 months.

That pushed its benchmark rate to between 5% and 5.25%, up from near zero in March 2022, although the Fed hinted the rise may be its last one for now.

The European Central Bank has also raised rates again, although by a smaller amount than in previous months.

The ECB lifted its three key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, whereas the three preceding meetings have all seen a larger rise.

‘Significant change’

In the US, higher rates have sharply raised borrowing costs, spurring a slowdown in sectors such as housing and playing a role in the recent failures of three US banks.

“We’re no longer saying that we anticipate” additional interest rate increases, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said after the announcement, calling it a “significant change”.

However, he refused to rule out further action, saying: “We’ll be driven by incoming data.”

GETTY IMAGES

Fed chair Jerome Powell hinted this might be the last rate rise for a while

The bank started raising interest rates aggressively last year when prices in the US were soaring at the fastest pace in decades.

Higher interest rates make it more expensive to buy a home, borrow to expand a business or take on other debt. By increasing those costs, officials expect demand to fall and prices to cool off.

Since the Fed started its campaign, price increases in the US have shown signs of moderating.

In March, inflation, the rate at which prices rise, stood at 5% – the lowest level in nearly two years – though still uncomfortably high for the Fed, which is targeting a 2% rate.

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, said he thought the Fed would be “prudent” to pause now, noting that the risks to the economy as activity slows are growing.

“The fear of a recession is very much present in the economy today,” he said. “I don’t think the inflation battle is over, but we are in a situation where we’re seeing gradual disinflation and we’re also in an environment where interest rates are high and elevated and therefore should be constraining business activity, which should lead to further disinflation in coming months.”

At Ball Chain Manufacturing, a family-owned firm in New York, customers have become more cautious in recent months due to economic worries, says president Bill Taubner. His company has also cut back on replenishing its supplies in response to still-rising prices.

But he said his firm did not face imminent borrowing needs and he remained hopeful that any slowdown would be mild and relatively short-lived.

Bill Taubner has felt the economy cool as customers of his manufacturing business have grown more cautious

“We realise there is some softness in the marketplace because of inflation and obviously the interest rate issues,” he said. “But long term, we’re very positive.”

The recent bank failures, and an anticipated pullback in lending as a result, are likely to weigh on the economy, Mr Powell said.

But he added that he remained hopeful that the US would avoid a recession, noting that hiring has remained strong and unemployment low.

“I continue to think that it’s possible… that this time is really different,” he said.

The Fed’s decision to raise rates on Wednesday was unanimous and widely expected by financial markets, which are looking for clues as to what the bank may do next.

In a written statement, the bank scrapped previous guidance it provided in March when it said “some additional policy firming may be appropriate” to bring inflation under control.

In the press conference, Mr Powell said the bank was “getting close or maybe even there” when it came to pausing its rate-hike campaign but was prepared to do more if warranted.

Whitney Watson, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said the Fed could still raise rates, depending on what happens in the coming months.

“Inflation is trending in the right direction, but progress has been bumpy,” she said. “A pause in rate actions is therefore appropriate, but further tightening is plausible should inflation prove sticky.”

‘Too high for too long’

In Europe, the European Central Bank has also been raising rates to try to slow the pace of price increases in the countries that use the euro.

Earlier this week, figures showed that eurozone inflation increased in April for the first time in six months. Prices rose at an annual pace of 7%, well above the ECB’s target of 2%.

On Thursday, the ECB raised its key deposit rate – how much interest it pays on deposits – to 3.25% from 3%. It also lifted its main refinancing rate – how much banks have to pay when they borrow money from the ECB – to 3.75% from 3.5%.

However, unlike the US Fed on Thursday, the ECB did not hint that it might have finished with rate rises for now.

ECB president Christine Lagarde said the inflation outlook “continues to be too high for too long”, and speaking to reporters she said: “We are not pausing – that is very clear.”

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Business

Six tonnes of cocaine found in banana shipment

Published

5 months ago

July 16, 2024

Sniffer dogs in Ecuador have found 6.23 tonnes of cocaine hidden in a banana shipment, police say.

The dogs alerted their handlers, who seized 5,630 parcels filled with a white substance that later tested positive for cocaine.

The shipment was destined for Germany, officials said, and would have been worth $224m (£173m) had it reached its destination.

Five people had been arrested following the discovery, according to the prosecutor-general’s office.

Police said they had found the massive cocaine haul during a routine inspection of container stored at Posorja deepwater port south-west of Ecuador’s largest city, Guayaquil.

The cocaine parcels had been hidden beneath crates of bananas destined for export.

One of those arrested in connection to the drug discovery was a representative of the export company responsible for the shipment, whom prosecutors said had been present at the inspection and gave officials the names of the four other suspects.

They include the managers of the banana plantation where the cocaine is suspected to have been added to the fruit shipment, as well as the driver who took the container to the port.

Ecuador has become a major transit country for cocaine produced in neighbouring Peru and Colombia, with transnational criminal gangs using Ecuador’s ports to ship the drug to Europe and the US.

Last year, Ecuadorean security forces seized more than 200 tonnes of drugs, most of it cocaine. Only the US and Colombia seized more drugs in 2023.

Gangs have caused a wave of violent crime in Ecuador, leading President Daniel Noboa to declare a state of emergency and deploy tens of thousands of police officers and soldiers in an effort to combat them.

These security forces have stopped large amounts of cocaine from being shipped to Europe.

In January, officers found the largest stash ever to be seized in Ecuador – 22 tonnes of cocaine – buried in a pig farm.

However, extortion, kidnappings and murders remain high in the Andean country.

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Business

Thailand expands v-free entry to 93 countries

Published

5 months ago

July 16, 2024

Thailand has expanded its visa-free entry scheme to 93 countries and territories as it seeks to revitalize its tourism industry.

Visitors can stay in the South-East Asian nation for up to 60 days under the new scheme that took effect on Monday,

Previously, passport holders from 57 countries were allowed to enter without a visa.

Tourism is a key pillar of the Thai economy, but it has not fully recovered from the pandemic.

Thailand recorded 17.5 million foreign tourists arrivals in the first six months of 2024, up 35% from the same period last year, according to official data. However, the numbers pale in comparison to pre-pandemic levels.

Most of the visitors were from China, Malaysia and India.

Tourism revenue during the same period came in at 858 billion baht ($23.6bn; £18.3bn), less than a quarter of the government’s target.

Millions of tourists flock to Thailand every year for its golden temples, white sand beaches, picturesque mountains and vibrant night life.

The revised visa-free rules are part of a broader plan to boost tourism.

Also on Monday, Thailand introduced a new five-year visa for remote workers, that allows holders to stay for up to 180 days each year.

The country will also allow visiting students, who earn a bachelor’s degree or higher in Thailand, to stay for one year after graduation to find a job or travel.

In June, authorities announced an extension of a waiver on hoteliers’ operating fees for two more years. They also scrapped a proposed tourism fee for visitors flying into the country.

However some stakeholders are concerned that the country’s infrastructure may not be able to keep up with travellers’ demands.

“If more people are coming, it means the country as a whole… has to prepare our resources to welcome them,” said Kantapong Thananuangroj, president of the Thai Tourism Promotion Association.

“If not, [the tourists] may not be impressed with the experience they have in Thailand and we may not get a second chance,” he said.

Chamnan Srisawat, president of the Tourism Council of Thailand, said he foresees a “bottleneck in air traffic as the incoming flights may not increase in time to catch up with the demands of the travellers”.

Some people have also raised safety concerns after rumours that tourists have been kidnapped and sent across the border to work in scam centres in Myanmar or Cambodia.

A fatal shooting in Bangkok’s most famous shopping mall last year has also caused concern among visitors.

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Business

Royal Mail will deliver letters forever

Published

5 months ago

July 16, 2024

The prospective new owner of Royal Mail has said he will not walk away from the requirement to deliver letters throughout the UK six days a week, as long as he is running the service.

“As long as I’m alive, I completely exclude this,” Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky told the BBC.

Mr Kretinsky has had a £3.6bn offer for Royal Mail accepted by its board.

Shareholders are expected to approve the deal in the coming months, but the government also has a say over whether it goes ahead.

Currently the Universal Service Obligation (USO) requires Royal Mail to deliver letters six days a week throughout the country for the same price. But questions have been raised over whether the service could be reduced in the future.

In an exclusive interview with the BBC, Mr Kretinsky also said he would be willing to share profits with employees, if given the go-ahead to buy the group.

However, he appeared to reject the idea of employees having a stake in Royal Mail, which unions have called for in exchange for their support.

The Royal Mail board agreed a £3.6bn takeover offer from Mr Kretinsky in May for the 500-year-old organisation, which employs more than 150,000 people. Including assumed debts, the offer is worth £5bn.

But because Royal Mail is a nationally important company, the government has the power to scrutinise and potentially block the deal.

As well as keeping the new government on side, Mr Kretinsky also faces the task of convincing postal unions that the proposed deal will benefit employees.

The USO is a potential sticking point for both the government and unions.

Royal Mail is required by law to deliver letters six days a week and parcels five days a week to every address in the UK for a fixed price.

How well this has actually been working in practice is a different matter. Ten years ago, 92% of first class post arrived on time. By the end of last year it was down to 74%, according to the regulator Ofcom.

Last year the regulator fined Royal Mail £5.6m for failing to meet its delivery targets.

Royal Mail has been pushing for this obligation to be watered down. It wants to cut second class letter deliveries to every other weekday, saying this will save £300m, and lead to “fewer than 1,000” voluntary redundancies.

‘Unconditional commitment’

Mr Kretinsky has committed in writing to honouring the USO, but only for five years.

And after that, in theory, the new owners could just walk away from it.

However, Mr Kretinsky told the BBC: “As long as I’m alive, I completely exclude this, and I’m sure that anybody that would be my successor would absolutely understand this.

“I say this as an absolutely clear, unconditional commitment: Royal Mail is going to be the provider of Universal Service Obligation in the UK, I would say forever, as long as the service is going to be needed, and as long as we are going to be around.”

Mr Kretinsky added that the written five-year commitment was “the longest commitment that has ever been offered in a situation like this”.

Woman's hand posting a letter into a red post box

Another potential stumbling block for the deal, however, is how the company will be structured.

Unions would like to see the company renationalised, but Dave Ward, general secretary of the Communication Workers Union (CWU), told the BBC that would be “difficult in the current political and economic environment”.

Instead, what the CWU is pushing for is “a different model of ownership” – that is, where the employees part-own the business.

To get its support for the takeover, the union wants employees to share ownership of the company, along with other concessions including board representation for workers.

It says profit sharing is “not going to be enough to deliver our support and the support of the workforce”.

If the union doesn’t get what it wants, it won’t rule out industrial action, Mr Ward said. Its members went on strike in 2022 and 2023.

Although Mr Kretinsky said he is “very open” to profit sharing, he is not in favour of shared ownership.

“I don’t think the ownership stake is the right model,” he said. “The logic is: share of profit, yes, [but an] ownership structure creates a lot of complexity.

“For instance, what happens if the employee leaves? He has shares, he is leaving, he is not working for the company, he [still] needs remunerating.”

Mr Kretinsky said he didn’t want to create “some anonymous structure” but instead “remunerate the people who are working for the company, and creating value for the company”.

The union is also concerned about job losses and changes to the terms and conditions of postal workers’ contracts.

Mr Kretinsky has guaranteed no compulsory redundancies or changes in terms and conditions but only until 2025.

“If we are more successful, and we have more parcels to be delivered, we need not less people, but we need more people,” he said. “So really, job cuts are not part of our plan at all.”

He said if the management, union and employees work together, “we will be successful”.

Another concern is the potential break-up of the business.

The profit for Royal Mail’s parent company last year was entirely generated by its German and Canadian logistics and parcels business, GLS. Royal Mail itself made a loss.

Mr Kretinsky has promised not to split off GLS or load the parent company with excessive debt, although borrowings will rise if the deal goes through.

But he has a way to go to convince the CWU.

“I can’t think of any other country in the world that would just just hand over its entire postal service to an overseas equity investor,” Mr Ward of the CWU said.

However, Mr Kretinsky said that the postal unions “do understand that we are on the same ship, and that we need this ship to be successful, and that if we are there, we don’t have any real problems to deal with, because the sky is blue, and it’s blue for everybody.”

The union cannot stop this deal but the government can block it under the National Security and Investment Act.

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has said he will scrutinise the assurances and guarantees given and called on Mr Kretinsky to work constructively with the unions.

Mr Kretinsky may say that he and the unions are ultimately on the same ship but, as things stand, they are not on the same page.

Who is Daniel Kretinsky?

Daniel Kretinsky started his career as a lawyer in his hometown of Brno, before moving to Prague.

He then made serious money in Central and Eastern European energy interests.

This includes Eustream, which transports Russian gas via pipelines that run through Ukraine, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

He then diversified into other investments, including an almost 10% stake in UK supermarket chain Sainsbury’s and a 27% share in Premier League club West Ham United.

The Czech businessman is worth about £6bn, according to reports.

Royal Mail

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