Little comfort for Tories in bad night

This set of by-elections amounts to a single question: just how badly did the Conservatives do?

The answer – very badly.

But not as badly as they had feared.

The prospect of a crushing three-nil defeat – beaten everywhere – was averted.

Labour managed to win – and win really big – in rural North Yorkshire; the kind of spot some distance from usually fertile political territory for them.

And yet they lost in north west London, where they had expected to win.

But, but, but: the Tory obliteration in Somerset will sow panic among many Conservatives in the south west of England.

So let’s unpick where this leaves us, because on the face of it is a rather messy picture.

To what extent were these contests atypical, by-election quirks rather than true indicators of the national mood?

Firstly, Labour’s victory in Selby and Ainsty is off the scale big.

Another Keir joins the ranks of Labour MPs, Keir Mather. It’s a name rich in Labour history: Keir Hardie was the party’s first leader.

If Labour won on this scale nationally, they would be in government with a colossal majority.

But hang on a minute.

The party that has campaigned so fruitfully for so long on the perceived failings of Boris Johnson has failed to take Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the very seat he used to represent.

Just days ago, the Conservatives were ready to blame what they described privately as “Long Boris” to explain away their losses.

In other words, don’t blame us, blame the prime minister before last.

But now they have won where he was the MP, and lost in two places where he wasn’t.

Downing Street had not anticipated a photo opportunity where smiles would feature today.

But before some of us had reached for the breakfast cereal Rishi Sunak was beaming in Uxbridge.

And his message is one we will keep hearing, I suspect: the general election is not a done deal, and where voters see what he will claim is the “reality of Labour” they vote Conservative.

To hear Conservatives this morning talking about Uxbridge was to hear those swimming through the roughest of rough political seas, and then seeing an unlikely raft upon which to climb, and breathe a brief sigh of relief.

Labour are disappointed to lose in Uxbridge.

Publicly, and more candidly in private, they blame the expansion of London’s Ultra Low Emissions Zone (Ulez), a policy idea blamed by many voters on the Labour mayor of London, Sadiq Khan.

“If you run on a ticket about the cost of living but you are blamed for adding 90 quid a week to the cost of living for some, it’s going to be difficult,” acknowledged one party figure.

The Ulez daily charge is £12.50 a day. If a driver fails to pay the charge, or broke the penalty charge rules, the bill could be higher.

Labour’s failure to take Uxbridge presents three niggles for the party, as they look to the general election:

Equally, if you are one of the innumerable Labour figures desperate to not sound complacent, losing in Uxbridge rather helps.

And what about the Liberal Democrats?

Their win in Somerton and Frome was huge.

They hope it is proof of a revival in the West Country, a former heartland for the party before the near oblivion that followed their years in coalition at Westminster.

And there is plenty of evidence of that revival: last year’s by-election win in nearby Tiverton and Honiton and their control of Somerset Council for starters.

But: they are a small party with limited resources.

They threw everything at Somerton and Frome, managing to knock on 15,000 doors on polling day alone.

That kind of operation is much harder to do at a general election – when they are likely to be trying to throw everything at around 30 seats, not just one.

Privately, party figures acknowledge that this by-election campaign was helped hugely by former Conservative cabinet minister Nadine Dorries having not yet resigned her seat in Mid Bedfordshire, another Lib Dem target.

Had that contest happened on Thursday too, it would have split their resources in half. At a general election, the demands on staffing would be even more brutal.

But the party does now have ample evidence that they have overcome the paralysing hangover of the coalition years, and are competitive again – and dangerous, particularly to the Tories.

Overall, the scope for Conservative comfort anywhere after these results is very slender.

But not as slender as it might have been.

Reports /TrainViral/