Finance

The inflation breakdown for September 2022

Published

2 years ago

October 13, 2022

Inflation was a bit hotter than expected in September, with monthly gains fueled primarily by housing, food and medical care, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday.

Inflation measures how quickly the prices consumers pay for a broad range of goods and services are rising.

The consumer price index, a key inflation barometer, jumped by 8.2% in September relative to a year earlier. Economists had expected an 8.1% annual increase. Basically, a basket of goods that cost $100 a year ago cost $108.20 today.

The positive news: September’s annual increase was smaller than the 8.3% rise in August. The bad: Inflation is still high across many consumer categories, said Yiming Ma, an assistant professor of business at Columbia University.

“On paper, [inflation] has come down,” Ma said. “The elephant in the room is price levels are still increasing at an extremely high rate.”

“The big picture is that inflation is high everywhere,” she added. “I think consumers will continue to feel it.”

Food prices have taken a ‘starring role’

Food prices have been among the largest contributing categories to inflation in recent months.

The “food at home” index — or grocery prices — jumped 13% in September versus the same time a year ago. That’s a slight decline from 13.5% in August, which was the largest 12-month increase in over 40 years, since March 1979.

Within that category, certain items have seen prices rise sharply over the past year, such as butter and margarine (up 32.2%), eggs (30.5%) and flour (24.2%).

Gasoline prices were the primary irritant for many American households earlier this year, when national averages briefly topped $5 a gallon, but food has now “taken that starring role,” said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate.

Even so, energy prices have been another major inflation contributor in the past year. The category — which includes gasoline, fuel oil, electricity and other items — is up 19.8%.

Gasoline prices have retreated from summer highs, and currently sit at an average $3.91 per gallon nationwide, per AAA. But rates are expected to rise after a bloc of big oil producers announced last week that they plan to cut oil output.

More contributors than detractors to inflation

“Core” inflation — a measure that strips out food and energy costs, which can be volatile — is important in terms of predicting future inflation trends, according to Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

The measure gives a sense of how broad-based inflation has gotten. That core rate rose 6.6% in the last year, up from 6.3% in August and the largest 12-month increase since August 1982, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Trouble is, there are more contributors to inflation than there are detractors to it right now,” Hamrick said. “It’s not a localized problem.”

Shelter, which includes rent, is up 6.6% in the last year and accounts for more than 40% of the total increase in core inflation. Increases in medical care (up 6%), household furnishings and operations (9.3%), new vehicles (9.4%), and used cars and trucks (7.2%) are other “notable” categories, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Inflation factors are ‘remarkable, unprecedented and highly complicated’

A healthy economy experiences a small degree of inflation each year. U.S. Federal Reserve officials aim to keep inflation around 2%.

But a supply-and-demand imbalance led inflation to increase starting in early 2021, following years of low inflation.

Covid-19 lockdowns, stimulus funds and other factors combined to crimp global supply lines, alter Americans’ consumption of goods and services, and fuel a surge in job openings and wages, according to Hamrick. The war in Ukraine also created supply bottlenecks and raised global prices of commodities such as oil and food, he said.

“The convergence of all these factors has been remarkable, unprecedented and highly complicated,” Hamrick said.

Inflation is on the rise across global economies. Global inflation is forecast to rise to 8.8% in 2022 from 4.7% in 2021 but decline to 6.5% in 2023 and to 4.1% by 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Despite signs of continued strong inflation in the CPI, “there are still clear signs of disinflation everywhere else we look,” according to a note published Thursday morning by Capital Economics.

These signs include a decline in the price of used cars, which “should continue to feed through,” and private-sector measures of new rents, which “point to an eventual sharp moderation in shelter inflation too,” the note said. However, a slowdown in rent inflation likely won’t be pronounced until the first half of 2023, it added.

“I do think this will resolve itself, but it will take patience,” Hamrick said.

Crypto

Bitcoin’s Recovery – the Downturn Is Over

Published

5 months ago

July 16, 2024

The market is currently in a news-driven environment where the prices of cryptocurrencies have been determined by news agenda rather than fundamentals.

Bitfinex analysts have warned crypto investors to be cautious as bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery over the weekend is not a sign that its correction is over; the asset could witness more bloodshed in the near term.

In the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, experts deemed the market’s reaction this week critical, especially as supply alleviated over the weekend could return when traditional markets open.

“No Man’s Land”

Since Saturday, bitcoin has risen almost 10% from $57,600 to $63,000, closing last week in the green. The asset has surged above the 125-day range low of $60,200, which it broke through earlier this month after news of the German government’s massive BTC selling hit the market.

Market sentiment began to improve after reports that wallets linked to the German government were almost empty. However, the positive sentiment may not be sustained for long as the BTC the German authorities moved to trading desks and exchanges are yet to be sold.

While the supply from Germany appears to have been factored into bitcoin’s market price, Bitfinex analysts believe the end of selling pressure depends on how the involved trading desks execute their trades in the coming days.

Although the shift in sentiment underscores the market’s capacity to integrate new information and adjust expectations quickly, analysts think the market’s reaction over the first two trading days of the week cannot be overlooked for two reasons.

First, the low support level in the $60,200 range has now become a potential resistance line. Second, trading patterns over the past three months suggest that weekends are usually favorable for markets, especially on Saturdays when supply pressure seems to subside.

“We are now in no man’s land until we get clear resolution above or below this level,” the analysts said.

A News-Driven Environment

Besides the potential resistance level and three-month weekend trading pattern, the market is currently in a news-driven environment, where the prices of cryptocurrencies have been determined by news agendas rather than fundamentals.

Since selling pressure concerns are not yet completely obsolete due to upcoming Mt Gox creditor distributions, Bitfinex analysts expect such headlines to continue to have some impact on price movements. As such, the analysts urged investors to exercise caution in their trading strategies.

Reports /Trainviral/

Crypto

Bitcoin ETFs Saw $300M in Daily Net Inflows

Published

5 months ago

July 16, 2024

BlackRock’s IBIT led with $117.25 million in inflows on July 15, also being the most traded Bitcoin ETF.

The US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily net inflow of $301 million on July 15th. This extended their winning streak to seven consecutive days amidst a broader market recovery.

None of the ETFs recorded outflows for the day.

Bitcoin ETFs Rake in $16.11B in Net Inflows Since Jan

According to the data compiled by SoSoValue, BlackRock’s IBIT, the top spot Bitcoin ETF by net asset value, recorded the largest net inflows of the day at $117.25 million. IBIT was also the most actively traded Bitcoin ETF on Monday, with a volume of $1.24 billion. Ark Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB came in close behind with net inflows of $117.19 million.

Fidelity’s FBTC experienced net inflows of $36.15 million on Monday, while Bitwise’s BITB saw $15.24 million in inflows. VanEck’s HODL, Invesco and Galaxy Digital’s BTCO, and Franklin Templeton’s EZBC funds also recorded net inflows. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC and other ETFs, such as Valkyrie’s BRRR, WisdomTree’s BTCW, and Hashdex’s DEFI, registered no flows for the day.

A total of $2.26 billion was traded on Monday. The trading volume for these ETFs was less than in March when it exceeded $8 billion on some days. Meanwhile, these funds have collectively attracted $16.11 billion in net inflow since their January launch.

What’s Next For Bitcoin?

Earlier this month, bitcoin’s price decline was mainly due to fears of massive selling pressure from Mt. Gox and the German government’s BTC sales.

But the assassination attempt on pro-crypto former US President and presumptive Republican candidate Donald Trump at Saturday’s rally seemed to spark a recovery in the world’s largest digital asset, and experts are bullish on the asset’s price trajectory going forward. Bitcoin surged more than 9% over the past week and was currently trading slightly below $64,000.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt discussed bitcoin’s price outlook, suggesting a potential major rally. He referred to a pattern he terms “Hump->Slump->Bump->Dump->Pump” and highlighted that the July 5 double top attempt was a bear trap, confirmed by the July 13 close. He sees a likely continued upward trend but warned that a close below $56,000 would negate this bullish view.

“Bitcoin $BTC could be unfolding its often-repeated Hump…Slump…Bump…Dump…Pump chart construction. Jul 5 attempt at the double top was a bear trap, confirmed by Jul 13 close. Most likely scenario now is that bears are trapped. Close below $56k negates this interpretation”

Reports /Trainviral/

Crypto

LI.FI DeFi Platform Exploited, Over $8M Lost

Published

5 months ago

July 16, 2024

PeckShield alert reveals LI.FI’s protocol vulnerability is similar to a March 2022 attack, with the same bug recurring.

The decentralized finance (DeFi) platform LI.FI protocol has suffered an exploit amounting to over $8 million.

Cyvers Alerts reported detecting suspicious transactions within the LI.FI cross-chain transaction aggregator.

LI.FI Issues Warning After $8 Million Exploit

LI.FI confirmed the breach in a statement on July 16 via X: “Please do not interact with any http://LI.FI powered applications for now! We’re investigating a potential exploit.” The team clarified that users who did not set infinite approval are not at risk, emphasizing that only those who manually set infinite approvals seem to be affected.

According to Cyvers Alerts, more than $8 million in user funds have been stolen, with the majority being stablecoins. According to on-chain data, the hacker’s wallet holds 1,715 Ether (ETH) valued at $5.8 million and USDC, USDT, and DAI stablecoins.

Cyvers Alerts advised users to revoke relevant authorizations immediately, noting that the attacker is actively converting USDC and USDT into ETH.

Crypto security firm Decurity provided insights into the exploit, stating that it involves the LI.FI bridge. “The root cause is a possibility of an arbitrary call with user-controlled data via depositToGasZipERC20() in GasZipFacet, which was deployed 5 days ago,” Decurity explained on X.

“In general, the risks behind routers, cross-chain swaps, etc. are about token approvals. Raw native assets like (unwrapped) ETH are safe from these kinds of hacks b/c they don’t have approvals as an option. Most users & wallets also no longer do “infinite approvals” which gives a smart contract total control on removing any amount of their tokens. It’s important to understand which tokens you’re approving to which contracts.

This dashboard looks for all transactions of a user that intersects Lifi. Not all of these transactions indicate risk- but you can see how, broadly, integrations & layers of tech (like how Metamask bridge uses Lifi on BSC) can complicate how users do or don’t put their assets at risk. Revoke Cash is the most well known approval manager app.

But it’s also good security practice to simply rotate your address. New addresses start with 0 approvals, so starting fresh by moving your tokens to a fresh address is another good security practice.” – commented Carlos Mercado, Data Scientist at Flipside Crypto.

Recent Exploit Mirrors March 2022 Attack

Further analysis by PeckShield alert revealed that the vulnerability is similar to a previous attack on LI.FI’s protocol that occurred on March 20, 2022. That incident saw a bad actor exploit LI.FI’s smart contract, specifically the swapping feature, before bridging.

The attacker manipulated the system to call token contracts directly within their contract’s context, making users who had given infinite approval vulnerable. This exploit resulted in the theft of approximately 205 ETH from 29 wallets, affecting tokens such as USDC, MATIC, RPL, GNO, USDT, MVI, AUDIO, AAVE, JRT, and DAI.

“The bug is basically the same. Are we learning anything from the past lesson(s)?” PeckShield Alert said in a July 16 X post.

Following the 2022 incident, LI.FI disabled all swap methods in its smart contract and worked on developing a fix to prevent future vulnerabilities. However, the recurrence of a similar exploit raises concerns about the platform’s security measures and whether adequate steps were taken to address the vulnerabilities identified in the previous breach.

LI.FI is a liquidity aggregation protocol that allows users to trade across various blockchains, venues, and bridges.

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